With the Berlin Major 2023 reaching its finale this weekend, Team Liquid is officially the first team to qualify for the International 12 (TI12). Gaimin Gladiators are the second closest team to securing a direct invite, and according to Ben “Noxville” Steenhuisen they already have in 100% of scenarios.
Consistency is key!
Noxville’s Monte Carlo simulations
Noxville is the iconic figurehead behind Dota 2 professional stats and is the founder of datDota. His most recent brainchild, the Monte Carlo Simulations, calculated that Team Liquid has a 100% probability of qualifying for TI12 out of the 100,000 iterations generated by the simulation. Meanwhile, Gaimin Gladiator isn’t too shabby themselves, having only one out of the 100,000 iterations, where they could fail to qualify for TI12.
After today’s games @GaiminGladiator
now qualify in all the simulations – but still there exist some very weird outcomes in which they don’t.
Their slot will likely be confirmed towards the end of DPC Tour 3.https://t.co/3ckg59W7oh
— Ben Steenhuisen (@Noxville) May 7, 2023
On initial glance, this all seems reasonable considering both teams are Western Europe’s top candidates and the one/two at the Berlin Major 2023.
Consistency wins in Rankings Simulations
Team Liquid has much to thank their consistent performance throughout the Dota Pro Circuit 2023 (DPC 2023) for this early guaranteed TI12 invite. They won both Division 1 Tours, worth 700 cumulatively, and placing second at Lima Major for another 350 DPC points. Boxi even felt they were stronger in Lima than Berlin, but cumulatively they retain a strong level of consistency despite patch changes and meta.
Meanwhile, Gaimin has only been outstanding during the Majors, but often barely sufficient at qualifying for majors by placing third.
While Gaimin has a 100% qualify rate via DPC points as of the Berlin Major 2023 standings. Several notable mentions that the Monte Carlo Simulations calculated are also reliable predictions on the potential Top-12 on DPC Leaderboard.
Monte Carlo Simulations by Noxville
This includes teams that have at least 70% qualify rate via DPC points. Following closely behind Gaimin is Talon Esports, Evil Geniuses, 9Pandas and Shopify Rebellion that have a convincing 99.10-99.98% likelihood of qualifying for TI12.
This, as it stands, is a very convincing shot for Talon Esports, considering they are the proclaimed Southeast Asia representative. Furthermore, Evil Geniuses, 9Pandas, and Shopify Rebellion each represent their home region as the best team from South America, Eastern Europe and North America respectively.
Going further down the rankings, the other five teams, beastcoast, TeamSoloMid, Tundra Esports, Team Spirit and PSG.LGD all hang above 90% to qualify. Besides Tundra Esports, which has been consistently rivalling the likes of other WEU giants, the rest are merely regional winners. Since DPC points distribution in Division 1 is top-heavy, these teams gained most points via regional Division 1 winnings.
Even though, they struggle in the majors. In fact, beastcoast, TSM, Team Spirit and PSG.LGD were eliminated at the Berlin Major and performed just as poorly as major too.
The Twelfth Place in DPC Leaderboard
With eleven teams likely occupying the DPC Leaderboard, this leaves the last qualifying ranking up for grabs. Team Aster and OG currently sit around at a 78-79% qualify rate via DPC points, as the twelfth place in DPC Leaderboard has historically been the most controversial.
For instance, last year, Virtus.pro had their TI12 direct invite snuffed out by a mere miscalculation on Valve’s behalf. Hence, we can never be too certain on confirming the twelfth place in DPC Leaderboard while there is still another tour to play.
About Post Author
