The Game Awards 2022 are just one day away, and one of the big discussions every year surrounds which game will win the final award of the night: Game of the Year.
This year, the nominees are A Plague Tale: Requiem, Elden Ring, God of War Ragnarok, Horizon Forbidden West, and Xenoblade Chronicles 3. Even though IGN’s own Best Game of 2022 nominees differ, we thought it would be interesting to use audience data from our coverage of the five Game of the Year nominees to predict what game will walk away with the award on Thursday night.
IGN Data Analyst Eric Zalewski compiled the data used for this experiment. We used a combination of data from IGN.com, IGN’s YouTube, Steam, and other sources to determine which games were the most popular with gamers throughout the year. It’s worth noting that winners for The Game Awards are determined largely by gaming outlets rather than the audience, but we still thought it’d be fun to see what the IGN audience thinks. Read on to find out our projected winners in about a dozen different categories for this year’s Game Awards.
Most Anticipated Game
Final Fantasy 16Hogwarts LegacyResident Evil 4StarfieldThe Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – Predicted Winner
While there are plenty of great games to look forward to in 2023, this contest wasn’t even that close. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom destroyed the competition, with its trailer attracting the most attention from our audience. And, Tears of the Kingdom articles drew nearly double the readership as the second place finisher, Hogwarts Legacy.
Best Adaptation
Arcane: League of LegendsCyberpunk: EdgerunnersThe Cuphead Show!Sonic the Hedgehog 2 – Predicted WinnerUncharted
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 was easily the most popular adaptation among these choices for the IGN audience. If you combine all of the views of these five nominees, Sonic 2 accounted for almost exactly half of them. Those Sonic fans are a passionate bunch.
Best Multiplayer Game
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 – Predicted WinnerMultiversusOverwatch 2Splatoon 3Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Shredder’s Revenge
Based on readership numbers for IGN’s reviews of these five games, Modern Warfare 2 narrowly edged out TMNT: Shredder’s Revenge. It’s not too surprising, considering MW2 crossed $1 billion faster than any other game in the Call of Duty franchise.
Best Sports/Racing Game
F1 22FIFA 23NBA 2K23Gran Turismo 7 – Predicted WinnerOlliOlli World
Gran Turismo 7 easily outpaced total viewership numbers leading up to release over the other nominees. We’ll have to see if the negative blowback over the game’s microtransations impacts its chances later this week.
Best Family Game
Kirby and the Forgotten LandLEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga – Predicted WinnerMario + Rabbids Sparks of HopeNintendo Switch SportsSplatoon 3
For this category, we looked at the number of users checking out IGN’s guides for each of these games during the first month after release. LEGO Star Wars had nearly more first month guide traffic than all other nominees combined. The game was hugely popular, earning the best LEGO game launch of all time.
Best Fighting Game
DNF DuelJoJo’s Bizarre Adventure: All Star Battle RThe King of Fighters 15MultiVersus – Predicted WinnerSifu
MultiVersus kept our audience’s attention even after the review dropped, likely thanks to additional character drops like LeBron James, Rick and Morty, and more. It’s the IGN audience pick for Best Fighting Game, trailed closely by Sifu (which isn’t really a fighting game, is it?).
Best RPG
Elden Ring – Predicted WinnerLive a LivePokémon Legends: ArceusTriangle StrategyXenoblade Chronicles 3
Elden Ring is one of the most popular guides on IGN in the last five years, matching the popularity of juggernauts like GTA V, Breath of the Wild, and Red Dead Redemption 2.
Best Action/Adventure Game
A Plague Tale: RequiemGod of War Ragnarok – Predicted WinnerHorizon Forbidden WestStrayTUNIC
Horizon Forbidden West just fell short of this award, due to a dropoff in audience interest following the release of Elden Ring. For that reason, God of War Ragnarok takes the Best Action/Adventure prize.
Best Action Game
Bayonetta 3Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II – Predicted WinnerNeon WhiteSifuTeenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Shredder’s Revenge
Bayonetta 3 had a decent amount of audience interest, but a lot of Bayonetta 3’s coverage was about controversy surrounding the game, rather than the game itself. Call of Duty remains unmatched in player base and popularity, giving it the win here.
Best Ongoing Game
Apex LegendsDestiny 2Final Fantasy 14 OnlineFortniteGenshin Impact – Predicted Winner
Genshin Impact’s consistent updates and event schedule propelled it over the other nominees for best ongoing game.
Best Indie/Debut Indie Game
Cult of the LambNeon WhiteSifuStray – Predicted WinnerTUNICNORCOVampire Survivors
We combined the nominees for Best Indie and Debut Indie Game into one category, finding that Stray would take both categories. Tunic came close, but the majority of its traffic came from guides, given its complicated nature. The cat game beats the fox game here.
Game of the Year
A Plague Tale: RequiemElden Ring – Predicted WinnerGod of War RagnarokHorizon Forbidden WestStrayXenoblade Chronicles 3
Finally, the one you’ve been waiting for. Based on a complex scoring system that awarded points for leading separate categories like the most popular guide, review, video views, and more, Elden Ring came out on top for our predicted Game of the Year winner. Elden Ring won four of the available five possible points, making it the clear favorite to win. But, that’s just our prediction!
Want to see how close (or far off) our predictions are? You can watch The Game Awards 2022 on Thursday, December 8 at 4 p.m PT / 7 p.m. ET when the IGN Pre-Show begins.
Logan Plant is a freelance writer for IGN covering video game and entertainment news. He has over six years of experience in the gaming industry with bylines at IGN, Nintendo Wire, Switch Player Magazine, and Lifewire. Find him on Twitter @LoganJPlant.
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